Phillies try to even series with Cubs

Baseball Betting Lines

07/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies needed some late heroics to stop the Chicago Cubs yesterday afternoon and hope that the momentum will carry over into this evening's finale of a four-game series from Wrigley Field.

The Phillies trailed 1-0 with two outs in the top of the ninth inning before scoring four runs to take the lead for good. Placido Polanco, who was activated from the 15-day disabled list prior to the game, had an RBI single and Ross Gload scored on a wild pitch. Jayson Werth later walked with the bases loaded to plate a run and Raul Ibanez put a lid on the scoring with an RBI single for a 4-1 edge.

Closer Brad Lidge allowed a walk in the bottom of the ninth before recoding his seventh save of the season. Cole Hamels was sharp through seven scoreless innings, as he allowed seven hits with five K's and two walks. Chad Durbin worked a scoreless eighth inning to grab the win.

"It's tremendous," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said of the win. "We gotta win some games. Every game we win from here on out is huge. We're chasing two teams and we need to put together some wins if we're going to stay in this thing."

Werth and Ibanez both ended with two hits and an RBI for the Phillies, who ended a two-game slide and won for the fifth time in seven tries. They are now 4 1/2 games behind Atlanta for the NL East lead, with the New York Mets lurking at five games off the pace.

Taking the hill for Manuel's club tonight will be ace Roy Halladay. Halladay is only 2-4 in his last six decisions and did not figure into the decision the last time out in a 1-0 win over Cincinnati despite tossing nine innings and giving up five hits. The righty also fanned nine batters.

Halladay is 10-7 with a 2.19 ERA in 19 starts this season and will try for his first career victory over the Cubs. In two career starts against Chicago he is 0-2 with a 3.00 earned run average.

Chicago suffered its first loss on the 10-game homestand (2-1) and wasted a superb effort from starter Randy Wells on Saturday. Wells delivered seven shutout innings and struck out five in the no-decision, while Carlos Marmol was the culprit in the ninth, allowing four runs on one hit and five walks to suffer the loss.

"Sometimes he's effectively wild," staff mate Sean Marshall said of Marmol on the team's site. "Today, he was picking at the corners a little bit. With a lineup like the Phillies have, you have to stay ahead of them. He knows what he has to do. He's done it so well this year and last year and his entire career."

Ryan Theriot had the lone RBI for the Cubs in the seventh inning, while Derrek Lee, Marlon Byrd and Starlin Castro had two hits apiece in defeat.

Tom Gorzelanny will try to pitch the Cubs to a series triumph when he takes the hill Sunday. Gorzelanny has won two straight appearances and previously toed the rubber on July 10 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the 7-3 win at Dodger Stadium, he gave up two runs -- one earned -- in six innings to improve to 4-5 in 18 games (12 starts) to go along with a 3.16 ERA.

The left-hander beat the Phillies on May 19 this season on the road, as he tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings in his team's 4-1 win. Gorzelanny is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in two career starts against Philadelphia. He is just 1-3 in the Windy City this season.

Chicago, which will also host Houston and St. Louis, is 10 games off the lead in the NL Central Division.

The Phillies had a five-game winning streak at Wrigley Field halted with Thursday's loss, but have still won nine of the past 13 meetings between the ballclubs.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.